How can anyone count the daisies in a whole field?
Your guess
Pick one before you read on. It is fine to be wrong.
By the end you can
Estimate the number of plants in a field using a square frame
Explain why samples should be placed at random
Counting every plant in a big field would take days. So scientists count a small part and use it to estimate the whole. The small part is called a sample.
For plants, the sample is taken with a quadrat. A quadrat is a square frame made of sticks and string. Here the frame is 1 m on each side, so it covers 1 m².
Draw it first
Count plants with a frame
1 Measure the field and mark it in squares the size of the frame. This field is 6 m by 4 m, so it has 24 squares.
2 Put the frame down on 5 squares. Choose the squares at random.
3 Count the plants inside each frame, and write the count in the frame.
Look closely at one frame. Count only the plants inside it. A plant lying across the string counts if its middle is inside. Use the same rule every time.
7 plants are inside this frame. The plants outside are not counted.
The next picture shows five frames placed at random. Each number is the plants counted in that frame.
See it three ways
With things
Write the numbers 1 to 24 on scraps of paper, one for each square. Fold them and put them in a cup. Shake the cup and draw 5 scraps without looking. Put a frame on each square you draw.
As a picture
In words
Each square had the same chance of being drawn. Some frames fell on thick patches and some on thin ones. That is what a fair sample looks like. Throwing a pebble is not fair. Squares near you are hit more often, and far squares are never hit.
In symbols
9 + 4 + 5 + 4 + 3 = 25 plants in 5 frames
Now work out the mean. To find the mean, add the counts and divide by how many counts there are. The mean is the number of plants in a typical frame.
The counts from the five frames, with their total and mean.
Each frame covers one square. The field has 24 squares. If a typical square holds 5 plants, the field holds 5 times 24.
Worked example
Five frames hold 9, 4, 5, 4, 3 plants. The field is 6 m by 4 m, so it has 24 squares the size of the frame. Estimate the plants in the field.
Add the counts: 9 + 4 + 5 + 4 + 3 = 25.
Divide by the number of frames: 25 ÷ 5 = 5 plants in a typical frame.
Multiply by the squares in the field: 5 × 24 = 120.
Answer: 120 plants
This is an estimate, not an exact count. Say that every plant had been counted, and the total was 125. The estimate of 120 is close. A different set of squares would give a slightly different estimate.
More frames make a better estimate. The graph shows the estimate after one frame, two frames and so on. It comes closer to the real total as more frames are counted.
The estimate after each frame. The real total is 125.
Now, why at random? Random means chosen by chance. Suppose you put every frame near the thick left edge. You would count a lot of plants and think the whole field is thick.
All the frames sit near the thick left edge. The mean is 9, so the estimate is 216. That is far too high.
Try it
Count a patch
You need: four sticks of equal length, about 1 m each, string to tie them into a square, 24 scraps of paper and a cup, a pencil and paper, a grassy patch of known size, such as 6 m by 4 m.
Be safe: Look for glass, thorns and nests before you start, and keep away from any you find. Look, count and leave the plants as they are.
Tie the sticks into a square frame. Pick one kind of plant to count, such as clover or daisies.
Lay a 1 m stick along the long side and then the short side. Multiply the two counts to get the squares. Say it is 24. Number them 1 to 24 row by row from one corner. Write the numbers on scraps and put them in the cup.
Shake the cup and draw 5 scraps without looking. Put the frame on each square you draw, and do not choose the square yourself.
Count the plants of your kind inside the frame. Write the number. Do this 5 times.
Find the mean. Multiply it by the number of squares in the patch.
What you will see: Each frame gives a different count. The mean smooths them out. Another time, with other draws, the answer will change a little but stay close.
If you cannot try it, this is what happens.
A wrong idea many people have
Put the frames where the plants are thickest, so you do not miss them.
Why it feels right: You want a good count, and thick patches have plenty to count.
The test that breaks it: Look at the picture of frames near the left edge. The estimate is 216, but the real total is 125.
What is true: Choose the squares at random. Then thick and thin patches both get a fair chance. The mean is a fair guide to the whole field.
Key words
sample
a small part that you count or measure to learn about the whole.
quadrat
a square frame, here 1 m on each side, laid on the ground to count plants.
estimate
a careful guess worked out from a sample.
mean
the total of the counts divided by how many counts there are.
random
chosen by chance, so that every place has the same chance.
Back to your guess
The answer is C: They count the plants inside a few small frames, then use the counts to estimate the whole field.
Scientists count the plants in a few square frames and work out the mean. Then they multiply by the number of frames that fit in the field. It is an estimate, and a fair one if the frames are placed at random.
Check yourself
Try each one before you look. A wrong answer tells you where to go next.
Why do scientists count plants in a few frames, not in the whole field?
See the answer
Counting all the plants would take too long, and a sample gives a good estimate.
A sample is a small part of the whole. Counting it is quick, and it tells you a good deal about the whole field.
If you chose B: It can be counted, but it would take days. A few frames give a good estimate in an hour. Go to S3.2.7.
If you chose C: A person does the counting. The frame only marks off a small, known area to count. Go to S3.2.7.
A student counts 3, 5, 6 and 2 plants in 4 frames. What is the mean number of plants in a frame?
If you chose A: That is the total of the counts. To find the mean, divide the total by the number of frames. Go to S3.2.7.
If you chose C: You may have picked one of the counts. The mean is the total divided by the number of counts. Go to S3.2.7.
The mean is 6 plants in each frame. The field has 30 squares the size of the frame. Estimate the plants in the field.
See the answer
180 plants
Each square holds about 6 plants and there are 30 squares. 6 × 30 = 180.
If you chose B: You have added the two numbers. Each of the 30 squares holds about 6 plants, so multiply. Go to S3.2.7.
If you chose C: Dividing 30 by 6 gives a number that means nothing here. Each square holds about 6 plants, so multiply. Go to S3.2.7.
Why should the frames be placed at random?
See the answer
So that every part of the field has a fair chance of being counted
Random choice gives thick and thin patches the same chance. The sample then matches the whole field.
If you chose A: Finding them again does not matter. What matters is that no part of the field is favoured over another. Go to S3.2.7.
If you chose C: Frames on thick patches would find more plants, but the estimate would be too high. A fair sample finds the plants a typical square holds. Go to S3.2.7.
A student puts all five frames near the thick left edge. What goes wrong?
See the answer
The estimate is too high.
The frames sit where the plants are thickest. The mean is too high, so the estimate for the whole field is too high.
If you chose B: The left edge has more plants than the rest of the field. The counts are high, so the estimate is too high. Go to S3.2.7.
If you chose C: The frames are the same size, but they all sit on the thickest part. They do not stand for the whole field. Go to S3.2.7.
From an earlier chapter
Plants in a crowd compete. What do they compete for?
See the answer
Light, water and space
A plant needs light, water, space and nutrients. In a crowd there is less of each for every plant.
If you chose B: Plants make their own food from light. They compete for light, water and space. Go to S3.2.6.
If you chose C: Animals compete for mates and shelter. Plants compete for light, water, space and nutrients. Go to S3.2.6.
Keep it
Copy this into your exercise book.
Count plants in a few square frames put down at random. Find the mean count. Multiply by the number of frames that fit in the field. Random choice makes the sample fair.
Draw: Draw a field as a grid of squares. Mark five squares with frames and write a count in each.